The San Francisco 49ers dominated the LA Rams 31-10 on Monday night just, when everybody counted them out. That weekly dynamic in the NFL is what drives casual football fans wild and sports bettors crazy. You come to expect the unexpected and hold yourself back from getting too carried away with what you just saw. The market’s value of a team swings like a pendulum during the season as you rack your brain relentlessly to determine exactly when it’s moved too far.
Bettors will play off a team’s most recent performance whether it was positive or negative. This approach has actually been very successful this season. Teams that failed to cover the spread in their last game are 44-21 ATS (67%) when playing teams that did. Last week, these teams were 4-1 ATS with Dallas, New Orleans, Carolina, and Philly all bouncing back and bringing home the money for their backers. Trends like this should never be the foundation of your wager, but it’s always valuable to keep an eye on the weekly market reactions to the teams. There are five games on this weekend’s NFL card that fit this zig-zag approach. Here are three that are worth a wager.
All lines via BetMGM.
Baltimore (-6.5) at Chicago
I am still shocked at how poorly Baltimore played last week in Miami, but it’s been that type of year for Ravens backers. Baltimore is 1-6 ATS as a favorite and 0-5 as a favorite of six points or more. There is no way to sugarcoat it, but there is a silver lining. The market has adjusted and that’s why I think there is value with the Ravens.
The Ravens closed at the same number (-6.5 favorites) at home against Cincinnati in Week 7. Even with Baltimore playing on the road, it’s hard to see how Chicago’s home-field advantage is equivalent to the gap between the Bengals and Bears. The greatest asset for the Bears playing at home might be the wind. Baltimore is tied for the league lead in rushing yards and is second in rushing attempts behind the Titans. If there’s a team built to go to…