Zeke Ready for Thanksgiving Feast

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Welcome to the Friday Walkthrough. Every week I’ll be outlining critical fantasy football context for the upcoming slate of games.

At the end of the article, I’ve included an extensive list of the stats used as well as what they are, why they’re useful, and where they came from.

Byes: Broncos, Rams

Bears at Lions, 12:30 PM Eastern, Thursday

Bears Implied Team Total: 22.5

David Montgomery played 95% of snaps against the Ravens and handled 93% of backfield attempts. Over his last two games, he’s played 90% of snaps and handled 84% of backfield attempts. He’s been a true workhorse since returning from injury.

Unfortunately, Montgomery’s workload hasn’t translated to fantasy production. In his last two games, he’s managed 121 scoreless yards on 27 carries, adding three receptions for 26 yards on three targets, good for 8.9 PPR points per game.

Montgomery has been reliable on the ground, ranking 10th in NFL Next Gen’s success/attempt metric. His combination of chunk running ability and snap domination would make him a strong fantasy producer in a more potent offense. But Montgomery hasn’t shown the otherworldly talent required to break through this nightmare situation. He ranks RB24 in breakaway percentage, RB34 in elusive rating, and RB51 in yards per route run.

Chicago will at least attempt to establish Montgomery this week. The Bears have shown a strong preference for the run with a -3% pass rate over expected. They rank 26th in PROE and 27th in situation-neutral pass rate. They run whenever they can get away with it.

But the Lions are actually more vulnerable through the air than on the ground. They rank 30th in EPA* allowed per dropback, 26th in Pro Football Focus’ pass rush grades, and 32nd in PFF’s coverage grades. Meanwhile, they aren’t good against the rush, but they’re almost respectable, ranking 19th in EPA allowed per rush and 27th in PFF’s run defense…


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