Tom Brady for MVP and a look at the awards

Tom Brady isn’t the MVP favorite. Not by himself anyway. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback is the co-favorite along with, surprisingly, Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills. The Bills looked miserable in a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Yet, the odds for Allen and Brady to win MVP are both +350 at BetMGM. 

Surprisingly enough, we’re halfway through an 18-game NFL season. We took a look at the team odds at the midway point this week, and now it’s time to look at where the individual awards stand, with all odds from BetMGM. 

Tom Brady had a remarkable first half of the season. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

MVP: Tom Brady is in good position

The smart money, as Yahoo Sportsbook’s Peter Truszkowski pointed out, could be on Lamar Jackson at +1100. I would sign off on that too. If Jackson goes 5,000 passing and 1,000 rushing, how can he not win the award? But there are six players ahead of Jackson in the BetMGM odds. 

Allen being a co-favorite is odd. The Bills are mildly disappointing at 5-3 and Allen has had some rough games. Allen could play well in the second half and win it, but his co-favorite status is based more on projections than what he has done so far. He probably wouldn’t get a single MVP vote if the season ended today. 

Brady would likely win if the vote was today. He has 25 touchdown passes already. I’m not sure how or if age should factor into the decision, but what he’s doing at 44 is unheard of. It looks like his award to lose, but there’s a long time for someone to pass him. 

The chalky bet: Brady
The value bet: Jackson
Who is going to win it?: Brady, the narrative will be too hard to ignore

Defensive player of the year: T.J. Watt is gaining steam

Myles Garrett is the favorite at +300 with his 12 sacks, but T.J. Watt has been phenomenal lately. Watt has 11.5 sacks and his odds are down to +325. Watt almost won the award last season. I don’t mind a bet on either AFC North star defender at their odds. 

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