NFL Week 9 odds, picks: Chiefs offense ready to take off vs. Packers, plus banking on Dak to sit out again

I held it off for as long as possible, but sooner or later, the losing week was going to show up. It’s just the nature of the NFL, and last week, for the first time since Week 2, we lost money.

Please find it in your heart to forgive me.

Of course, after losing money in Week 2, I went on a five-week stretch of winnings, so let’s just do that again. This week I’m looking to take advantage of some mysteries in the market, as we have a couple of questionable quarterback situations to take advantage of. We also have another instance of eating our vegetables, as there’s a bet that won’t be fun to make, but is the right play.

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Packers at Chiefs: Chiefs Over 27.5 (-120)

So, we found out that the Packers will be without Aaron Rodgers after he tested positive for COVID-19. As you’d expect, this had a major impact on both the spread and the total. Before Rodgers’ diagnosis became public, the Chiefs were favored by a point, and the total was at 54.5. As of publication of this column, the spread has moved to Chiefs -7.5, and the total is at 48. So, basically, Rodgers is worth a touchdown.

But I don’t want to figure out how his absence impacts the Packers; I just want to take advantage of it with the Chiefs. You see, while all the attention will be on Rodgers, he’s not the only player the Packers are missing. A quick look at their injured list shows a lot of key players on the defensive side of the ball have already been ruled out or are questionable. Now that Packers defense will have to help cover for a young, inexperienced QB in Jordan Love, who is a lot more likely to put them in bad positions than Rodgers ever has. And its facing a Kansas City offense that could really use a chance to show off and dominate somebody. Once the dam breaks, I don’t see this Chiefs offense slowing down, and there’s a good chance that happens Sunday afternoon.

Prediction: Chiefs…


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