Favorites led the way last week in the NFL by covering in eight of 14 games. It was only the fifth week this season in which they got the upper hand. For the first time this season, the spread was completely irrelevant in every single game. If you picked the winner, your bet cashed. All six underdogs that covered were also moneyline winners.
Underdogs winning outright have been much more common than bettors winning their bets because they took the points. Underdogs are 105-89 ATS on the season. The 105 underdog winners have won the game outright in 78 games. That’s an astonishing 78-27 to the moneyline, yielding a 74% hit rate!
The decision to play an underdog on the moneyline should be handicapped on a game-by-game basis. In terms of value, I don’t think there is much of an argument that your betting card should feature some underdogs at moneyline prices. Why pay -110 odds for points on every bet if you are only going to need them 26% of the time?
Last week, we capitalized on two road underdogs that brought us home the win at plus-money prices. The two-team moneyline parlay cashed at +405 odds giving us a nice payout. I am targeting two more road underdogs to win this week. The two-team ML parlay odds are currently +330 at BetMGM.
Atlanta (+115) at Carolina
The Sam Darnold reclamation project has put Matt Rhule on the hot seat in Carolina. After watching Panthers quarterbacks combine for a 33% completion percentage in a 23-point loss to Miami, Rhule convinced himself OC coordinator Joe Brady was the problem. The highly regarded Brady was dismissed, and Carolina’s head coach publicly pledged to run the football more.
The Panthers catch one of the worst pass defenses in the league and simply do not have a serviceable quarterback to exploit it. Carolina is 31st in passing DVOA and threw for only 134 yards against Miami. Now the Panthers enter a game under a serious amount of pressure without an offensive coordinator.
I’m much more confident in the Falcons’…