There is no position in sports harder to project from the college level to the professional level than the quarterback. While we’ll probably never figure out a way to project quarterbacks with 100% accuracy, I can tell you one thing: everybody who has said that the 2022 NFL Draft QB class is weak has not been lying to you.
You see, just because we’ll never figure out a way to accurately project QBs moving from college to the NFL, that doesn’t mean we aren’t going to try. I’ve been trying for over a decade now for two specific reasons:
I am a football nerd, and developing a statistical formula to try and solve one of life’s great mysteries is just something I would do.If it works, it’ll make me filthy rich.
For this year’s draft class, I have logged all the data, crunched all the numbers and come to the obvious conclusion that this class just isn’t good. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a player who emerges from this group that turns out to be a good NFL QB — it means it isn’t likely.
So how do I compile my rankings? Well, I use the list of quarterbacks on NFL.com’s draft page and then proceed to break down each prospect’s performances at the college level in three separate areas: against top 50 SP+ defenses, on third-and-long (and fourth downs, too) and in the red zone. These are the situations I believe are more “translatable” to what a QB will face in the NFL regularly. I then plug the numbers into a formula I’ve created and, voila, I get the scores. It’s not a perfect system; it certainly has a few glaring limitations. The first is that I don’t have access to enough reliable data from the FCS level as I do the FBS level, so I cannot include FCS players in the rankings. Another factor is that I do not include rushing in the formula, but this…